Let's predict the Oscar nominations! Who's in, who may get snubbed this year

From a Jewish architect and a Brooklyn stripper to a couple of Ozian witches and a whole bunch of wannabe popes, this Oscar season is giving us everything.

Everything but an actual front-runner.

As much as the Golden Globe winners and Screen Actors Guild nominations have made the possible favorites kinda sorta clear-ish – there does seem to be a soft spot for "Emilia Pérez" and "Conclave" so far – it still looks like a very unpredictable path toward the Academy Awards on March 2. Which makes trying to fearlessly predict who's going to snag nominations on Thursday that much more fun! (Not to mention how the Los Angeles wildfires factor into the timing of everything this awards season.)

Let's separate the potential contenders from the pretenders in the six major Oscar categories:

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Best picture

The best: While there's no massive favorite, most of the category seems fairly obvious at this point. "Anora" and "A Complete Unknown" are up for the top prizes with all the guilds (actors, producers, writers and directors). Since 2012, all the Directors Guild of America nominees have also jockeyed for the Oscars' top prize, which adds Golden Globe winners "The Brutalist" and "Emilia Pérez" plus "Conclave" to the list. "Wicked" is also a safe bet, given its Screen Actors Guild best cast nomination, and "A Real Pain," "The Substance" and "Dune: Part Two" have Producers Guild and Globe nominations in their favor.

The rest: So what gets that final slot? Since the Producers Guild Awards are a steady barometer for best picture – last year's nominee lists matched exactly – "September 5" likely has the best chance. Acclaimed dramas "Nickel Boys" (which is up for a first-time director DGA award and was nominated for a Globe) and "Sing Sing" haven't received that much awards-season love though loom as possible surprises. And don't count out "Challengers" with its Globe nomination and cool factor.

Best actor

The best: "The Brutalist" star Adrien Brody has been getting all the flowers this Oscar year so he's a shoo-in for a nomination (and likely a win). Also looking good to get in are SAG and BAFTA nominees Timothée Chalamet ("A Complete Unknown"), Ralph Fiennes ("Conclave") and Colman Domingo ("Sing Sing").

The rest: When it comes to that last nod, there's a bit of a Sebastian Stan conundrum at play. He won a Golden Globe for his lauded role in "A Different Man" but is up for a BAFTA as Donald Trump in "The Apprentice." Do his performances split votes and leave him out in the cold? Without a SAG nomination, he's vulnerable, making Daniel Craig ("Queer") a possibility to sneak in. The most intriguing player: BAFTA nominee Hugh Grant, who's never notched an Oscar nod in his long career and earned plenty of kudos for his horror villain turn in "Heretic."

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Best actress

The best: Demi Moore's career resurgence off a memorably wild role in "The Substance" is one of the best stories of this awards cycle. The Globe winner seems to be a lock alongside fellow would-be first-time Oscar nominees Mikey Madison ("Anora") and Karla Sofía Gascón ("Emilia Pérez"), a Globe nominee who's primed to make history as the first trans actress ever in the category. Also expect Cynthia Erivo ("Wicked") to nab her third career Oscar nod (with one being for original song).

The rest: There's plenty of talent ready to nab that fifth spot and/or an opening if one of the faves – say, Madison – gets snubbed. A-listers Angelina Jolie ("Maria") and Nicole Kidman ("Babygirl") seemed likely nominees early but are now on the outside looking in. Fernanda Torres ("I'm Still Here") won a Globe but didn't even make the SAG category. Past nominees Marianne Jean-Baptiste ("Hard Truths") and Saoirse Ronan ("The Outrun") have BAFTA berths to help their case. Kate Winslet ("Lee") and Tilda Swinton ("The Room Next Door") aren't exactly strangers to the Oscars, while their fellow Globe nominee Zendaya ("Challengers") could also surprise. Yet the woman with the most momentum is Pamela Anderson, snagging a SAG nod and riding a wave of last-minute goodwill for "The Last Showgirl."

Best supporting actor

The best: Kieran Culkin ("A Real Pain") is definitely making it in – and a clear favorite to win – having run the table thus far and impressed with a series of live-wire acceptance speeches. He's likely joined in the category by his old "Succession" co-star Jeremy Strong ("The Apprentice"), newcomer Yura Borisov ("Anora") and Edward Norton ("A Complete Unknown"). All have Globe, SAG and BAFTA nominations working for them.

The rest: Jonathan Bailey scored a surprise SAG nomination but does "Wicked" play as well for Oscar voters as it (apparently) does for actors? He could score an Oscar nod, though he'll have to beat out noteworthy names like Denzel Washington ("Gladiator II") and Guy Pearce ("The Brutalist"), the most probable fifth nominee who was inexplicably left out of SAG contention. Clarence Maclin is also in the mix, thanks to his BAFTA nod, though early momentum for him has waned as "Sing Sing" has struggled for Oscar attention.

Best supporting actress

The best: After a Globe win, Zoe Saldaña seems to be in the pole position for her first Oscar, so she'll snag a nomination for "Emilia Pérez" in what looks to be a two-woman race. The only other shoo-in at this point is Ariana Grande ("Wicked"), who boasts SAG, BAFTA and Globe nods.

The rest: This is a category ripe for chaos, with seven actresses vying for three spots. Continued love for "Emilia" is good news for Saldaña's co-star Selena Gomez, and she's rocking BAFTA and Globe nods, as are Isabella Rossellini ("Conclave") and Felicity Jones ("The Brutalist"). They're on shaky ground, however, without SAG in their corner. That's why dark horse Monica Barbaro ("A Complete Unknown") has a shot, though it stands more to reason her fellow SAG nominee Jamie Lee Curtis gets in, courtesy of that recent "Last Showgirl" push and the fact the outspoken star just won this category two years ago. Globe nominee Margaret Qualley could benefit from meme-worthiness of "The Substance" and SAG nominee Danielle Deadwyler has an outside chance, though "The Piano Lesson" has been thus far shut out of much Oscar talk.

Best director

The best: Four out of five DGA nominees getting into the Oscar category used to be a dependable bellwether – until last year, when only three made the cut. Assuming order is restored, you can bank on the BAFTA-nominated foursome of Sean Baker ("Anora"), Jacques Audiard ("Emilia Pérez"), Edward Berger ("Conclave") and Brady Corbet ("The Brutalist"), who won a Globe earlier this month.

The rest: The other DGA nominee, James Mangold ("A Complete Unknown"), could be the odd man out – and BAFTA/Globe nominee Coralie Fargeat, responsible for bonkers body horror movie "The Substance," is the best bet at avoiding the bad optics of an all-dude category. Denis Villeneuve ("Dune: Part Two") is a possibility given his BAFTA nod, while Globe nominee Payal Kapadia ("All We Imagine as Light"), RaMell Ross ("Nickel Boys") and Jon M. Chu ("Wicked") circle as longer shots.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Oscar predictions 2025: From nominations to snubs