Final Golden Globes Predictions: ‘Conclave,’ ‘Emilia Pérez’ and ‘Wicked’ Expected to Lead Nominations

And we’re off.

Golden Globe voters have received their ballots and are starting to consider their choices for the best work in film and television. With 15 film categories — six of them split between drama and comedy/musical — the Globes are a bellwether for the Oscars. Under the HFPA, the awards were criticized for favoring star power over quality — evidenced by all the love they showered on the 2010 Johnny Depp-Angelina Jolie turkey “The Tourist.” But with a revamped voting body, the Globes have become more discerning, making more globally minded choices. The recognition last year of Alma Pöysti for the Finnish film “Fallen Leaves” signaled this evolution.

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What can we expect this time around?

Comedy/Musical

These categories are shaping up to be particularly cutthroat. Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez” and Universal’s “Wicked” are leading the pack. Karla Sofía Gascón, poised to make history as the first transgender performer recognized in a film category, delivers a standout turn in “Emilia.” Meanwhile, Cynthia Erivo’s heartbreaking work as Elphaba in “Wicked” has generated considerable buzz. Then there’s Mikey Madison as a stripper entangled with a Russian oligarch’s kid in Neon’s “Anora.” Her ballsy, hilarious performance makes her a frontrunner at both the Globes and the Oscars.

The lead comedy actor race is less crowded. On the heels of his Cannes best actor win for Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Kinds of Kindness,” Jesse Plemons could score his first nom. But he’ll have to contend with Glen Powell’s shape-shifting performance in Richard Linklater’s “Hit Man,” as well as Ryan Reynolds’s motormouthed return as one-half of “Deadpool & Wolverine”’s costumed duo. Aside from those, the field is wide open.

Drama

These categories overflow with star power. Best actor is stacked with heavyweights like Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) and Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”). Each appears in nearly every scene of their films while delivering wrenching performances.

On the actress side, Angelina Jolie is enjoying a career resurgence with her portrayal of a tormented diva in “Maria.” But she’ll have to contend with Tilda Swinton, devastating as a woman with a terminal illness in “The Room Next Door,” and Nicole Kidman, who is emotionally raw as an executive having an affair with an intern in “Babygirl.” With six nominees per category, there’s room for surprises — perhaps Pamela Anderson in “The Last Showgirl”?

Supporting Performances

The supporting actor race offers a sturdy slate, including Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) and Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), who commit cinematic grand larceny with their scene-stealing work. And don’t count out “Challengers” ace Josh O’Connor, who has been largely overlooked so far.

All eyes are on the supporting actress category, which could be one of the most A-list heavy in years. Music heavyweights like Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”) and Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) should get the call, alongside Jennifer Lopez in Amazon MGM’s “Unstoppable.” And “Joker: Folie à Deux” may have bombed, yet Lady Gaga could hear her name when the nominations are announced on Dec. 9. Star power still goes a long way at the Globes.

The final Golden Globe predictions are below, including the television categories.

See all Academy Award predictions

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

Motion Picture (Drama) 

• “The Brutalist” (A24)

• “Conclave” (Focus Features)

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

• “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

• “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)

• “Sing Sing” (A24)

Alternate: “Blitz”

Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical) 

• “Anora” (Neon)

• “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

• “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)

• “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Alternate: “The Substance”

Actor (Drama) 

• Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist” (A24)

• Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Daniel Craig, “Queer” (A24)

• Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing” (A24)

• Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave” (Focus Features)

• John David Washington, “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

Alternate: Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

Actor (Comedy or Musical) 

• Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Hugh Grant, “Heretic” (A24)

• Jesse Plemons, “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Glen Powell, “Hit Man” (Netflix)

• Ryan Reynolds, “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)

• Sebastian Stan, “A Different Man” (A24)

Alternate: Michael Keaton, “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice”

Actress (Drama) 

• Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)

• Angelina Jolie, “Maria” (Netflix)

• Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl” (A24)

• Tilda Swinton, “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Kate Winslet, “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)

Alternate: Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl”

Actress (Comedy or Musical) 

• Amy Adams, “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

• Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

• Mikey Madison, “Anora” (Neon)

• Demi Moore, “The Substance” (Mubi)

• Zendaya, “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)

Alternate: June Squibb, “Thelma”

Supporting Actor 

• Jonathan Bailey, “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

• Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Clarence Maclin, “Sing Sing” (A24)

• Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist” (A24)

• Stanley Tucci, “Conclave”

• Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”

Alternate: Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”

Supporting Actress 

• Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

• Selena Gomez. “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

• Ariana Grande, “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

• Saoirse Ronan, “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)

• Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave” (Focus Features)

• Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

Alternate: Jennifer Lopez, “Unstoppable” 

Director 

• Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

• Sean Baker, “Anora” (Neon)

• Edward Berger, “Conclave” (Focus Features)

• Jon M. Chu, “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

• Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist” (A24)

• Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

Alternate: Ridley Scott, “Gladiator II”

Screenplay 

• “Anora” (Neon) — Sean Baker

• “The Brutalist” (A24) — Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold

• “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Peter Straughan

• “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg

• “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Pedro Almodóvar

• “The Substance” (Mubi) — Coralie Fargeat

Alternate: “Sing Sing”

Original Score 

• “The Brutalist” (A24) — Daniel Blumberg

• “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

• “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Volker Bertelmann

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer

• “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) — Jon Batiste

• “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Kris Bowers

Alternate: “The Room Next Door” 

Original Song 

• “Forbidden Road” from “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)

• “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

• “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

• “Folie à Deux” from “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)

• “Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• “Beautiful That Way” from “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)

Alternate: “Not My Fault” from “Mean Girls”

Animated Feature  

• “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)

• “Inside Out 2” (Pixar)

• “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)

• “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)

• “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)

• “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Alternate: “Moana 2”

Non-English Language Film 

• “All We Imagine as Light” from India

• “Emilia Pérez” from France

• “The Girl with the Needle” from Denmark

• “Kneecap” from Ireland

• “I’m Still Here” from Brazil

• “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany

Alternate: “Vermiglio”

Cinematic Box Office Achievement 

• “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)

• “Deadpool and Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

• “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

• “Inside Out 2” (Pixar)

• “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)

• “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)

• “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Alternate: “A Quiet Place: Day One” 

TV Series (Drama)

• “Fallout” (Prime Video)

• “House of the Dragon” (HBO/Max)

• “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)

• “Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)

• “Shōgun” (FX)

• “Squid Game” (Netflix)

Alternate: “The Diplomat”

TV Series (Comedy or Musical)

• “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

• “Agatha All Along” (Disney+)

• “Hacks” (HBO/Max)

• “A Man on the Inside” (Netflix)

• “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)

• “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

Alternate: “The Bear”

TV Series (Limited or TV Movie)

• “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)

• “Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)

• “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)

• “The Penguin” (HBO/Max)

• “Ripley” (Netflix)

• “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO/Max)

Alternate: “American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez”

TV Actor (Drama)

• Jake Gyllenhaal, “Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)

• Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game” (Netflix)

• Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)

• Eddie Redmayne, “The Day of the Jackal”

• Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun” (FX)

• Billy Bob Thornton, “Landman” (Paramount+)

Alternate: Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”

TV Actor (Comedy or Musical)

• Brian Jordan Alvarez, “English Teacher” (Hulu)

• Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

• Ray Romano, “No Good Deed” (Netflix)

• Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

• Vince Vaughn, “Bad Monkey” (Apple TV+)

• Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (FX)

Alternate: Theo James, “The Gentleman”

TV Actor (Limited Series or Movie)

• Nicholas Alexander Chavez, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)

• Colin Farrell, “The Penguin” (HBO/Max)

• Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)

• Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)

• Josh Andres Rivera, “American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez” (FX)

• Andrew Scott, “Ripley” (Netflix)

Alternate: Tom Hollander, “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”

TV Actress (Drama)

• Marisa Abela, “Industry” (HBO/Max)

• Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS)

• Nicola Coughlan, “Bridgerton” (Netflix)

• Myha’la Herrold, “Industry” (HBO/Max)

• Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)

• Anna Sawai, “Shōgun” (FX)

Alternate: Maya Erskine, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”

TV Actress (Comedy)

• Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)

• Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

• Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear” ‘(FX)

• Kathryn Hahn, “Agatha All Along” (Disney+)

• Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO/Max)

• Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale” (Apple TV+)

Alternate: Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building”

TV Actress (Limited Series or Movie)

• Cate Blanchett, “Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)

• Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO/Max)

• Cristin Milioti, “The Penguin” (HBO/Max)

• Lola Petticrew, “Say Nothing” (FX)

• Natalie Portman, “Lady in the Lake” (Apple TV+)

• Sofía Vergara, “Griselda” (Netflix)

Alternate: Julianne Moore, “Mary and George”

Supporting Actor (Television)

• Javier Bardem, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)

• Robert Downey Jr., “The Sympathizer” (HBO/Max)

• Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)

• Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)

• Peter Sarsgaard, “Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)

• Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

Alternate: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”

Supporting Actress (Television)

• Carol Burnett, “Palm Royale” (Apple TV+)

• Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear” (FX)

• Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)

• Patti LuPone, “Agatha All Along” (Disney+)

• Nava Mau, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)

• Meryl Streep, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

Alternate: Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”

Stand Up Comedy Performance

• Ellen Degeneres, “For Your Approval” (Netflix)

• Alex Edelman, “Just For Us” (HBO/Max)

• Nikki Glaser, “Someday You’ll Die” (HBO/Max)

• Adam Sandler, “Love You” (Netflix)

• Ramy Youssef, “More Feelings” (HBO/Max)

• Ali Wong, “Single Lady” (Netflix)

Alternate: Katt Williams, “Woke Foke”

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