Checking in on the 2025 Oscar race after the Toronto, Venice and Telluride film festivals

We're officially in the thick of the 2025 Academy Awards race, as the three big fall film festivals have come to a close.

This year's race feels as malleable and unpredictable as it ever has in recent memory, as there isn't one singular film that has emerged as the de-facto favorite.

Heck, we don't even know if this year's Toronto International Film Festival People's Choice Award winner (Mike Flanagan's The Life of Chuck) is even coming out this year since it lacks a distributor.

However, the close of the Toronto, Venice and Telluride film festivals give us a general idea of where this all goes. We'll roll up our sleeves and do our best to guess how this year's Oscars are shaping up in the eight key categories.

We're leaning on the insights of two of the best Oscar prognosticators out there, The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg and The Playlist's Gregory Ellwood, to help guide us in our guesses.

As, of course, it's September, so guessing is all we can really do until we get closer to January.

Best Picture

• A Complete Unknown

• Anora

• The Brutalist

• Blitz

• Conclave

• Dune: Part Two

• Emilia Pérez

• Gladiator II

• The Life of Chuck

• September 5

10 on the outside looking in: A Real Pain, The Apprentice, Civil War, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Wicked

This is perhaps one of the most unpredictable Best Picture fields in some time. The only films on this list that feel safe are Anora, Emilia Pérez and Dune: Part Two, and even then.

The historical drama September 5 picked up a ton of buzz out of Telluride and just got picked up by Paramount for a fall release (THR's Feinberg thinks it'll be a huge contender), and Mike Flanagan's The Life of Chuck just won the coveted People's Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. Every winner since 2012 has gone on to get a Best Picture nomination, but this feels like the year out of any where that sterling precedent could temporarily lapse.

However, Flanagan's got as much a track record to follow in Frank Darabont's footsteps as any to bring a Stephen King adaptation back to the Academy Awards.

Brady Corbet's The Brutalist got picked up by A24 after rapturous responses out of the fall festivals, as it's just hard to ignore this many serious people making "next great American epic" declarations. James Mangold's Bob Dylan biopic, A Complete Unknown, feels primed for a late surge with its December release, and we're not counting out celebrated auteur Steve McQueen's World War II drama Blitz doing well with the Academy until we hear otherwise.

Edward Berger's papacy drama Conclave and Ridley Scott's Gladiator sequel round out our list as two crowd-pleasing November films that feel like easy sells for Academy voters.

Our first one up if one of these films falters is Pedro Almodóvar's English-language debut The Room Next Door, which won the Golden Lion at Venice. Almodóvar is a force, and there might be enough goodwill to land him the first Best Picture nomination of his storied career. If something happens and The Life of Chuck opens in 2025, we'll make that our pick for the 10th slot.

However, The Playlist's Ellwood recommends we don't sleep on Alex Garland's Civil War, so we'll take his word on it and have it right on the cusp of a nomination.

Best Director

• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

• Sean Baker, Anora

• Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

• Steve McQueen, Blitz

• Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Five on the outside looking in: Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door), Edward Berger (Conclave), Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), Mike Flanagan (The Life of Chuck) James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

Like Best Picture, your guess is as good as ours as to how this field will shape up. Audiard is a celebrated auteur who will have Netflix campaigning for him and the international Academy block making it possible he's the safest of the five. Baker has been building to this moment for some time, and Anora might be his best chance to be recognized.

Corbet's work on The Brutalist sounds monumental, McQueen has been here before and Villeneuve got nominated for his first Dune film. Fehlbaum is on the outside looking in for us, as September 5 sounds like quite the contender.

Best Actor

• Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

• Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

• Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

• Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

• Peter Sarsgaard, September 5

Five on the outside looking in: Tom Hiddleston (The Life of Chuck), Jude Law (The Order), Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)

Brody, a former winner in this very category, has earned raves for his performance in The Brutalist, and he gives A24 two strong contenders in this category outside of Domingo for Sing Sing. The latter's film had a surprisingly low profile during its platformed release, but we're betting the industry love for Domingo will at least get him recognized for his profound work in the film.

Fiennes feels like a near-lock right now for Conclave, and Chalamet playing Bob Dylan seems like it'll cross plenty of boxes off for at least a nomination. We'll throw Sarsgaard in here, too, for playing a real-life figure (ABC Sports legend Roone Arledge) in a hotly tipped Best Picture contender.

Best Actress

• Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

• Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

• Angelina Jolie, Maria

• Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

• Mikey Madison, Anora

Five on the outside looking in: Kirsten Dunst (Civil War), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Florence Pugh (We Live in Time), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)

Wicked remains one of the toughest films to guess for this awards season, as starry Broadway adaptations can always go either way. However, Erivo is a beloved actor who will likely knock her "Defying Gravity" performance out of the park. That's why she's included here whereas the film's other big nominations are on the outside looking in.

Gascón, Jolie and Madison all feel like safe bets right now, with Kidman also earning a spot after winning an award at Venice for her performance in Babygirl. Erivo's spot is the most in flux in our predictions, with Swinton in an Almodóvar film feels like the next performance up.

Best Supporting Actor

• Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

• John Magaro, September 5

• Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

• Stanley Tucci, Conclave

• Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Five on the outside looking in: Mark Edelstein (Anora), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), John Lithgow (Conclave), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Culkin is outrageously good in A Real Pain, Jesse Eisenberg's dramedy that stands no better chance at a nomination than Best Supporting Actor. We'll put him in alongside Tucci, said to be strong in Conclave, Pearce, who got some of the best notices out of The Brutalist, Magaro, riding the September 5 buzz, and Washington, who strongly hinted in the Gladiator II trailer to be delivering one of those villainous performances that the Academy loves to honor.

Maclin is our next person up, as how Sing Sing does will likely inform his Oscar chances.

Best Supporting Actress

• Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

• Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

• Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

• Isabella Rosselini, Conclave

• Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Five on the outside looking in: Maria Bakalova (The Apprentice), Joan Chen (Dìdi), Leonie Benesch (September 5), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door)

The word is that Deadwyler is the standout performance in The Piano Lesson, while Saldaña and Gomez could round out the trio of stars in Emilia Pérez to earn Oscar nominations. We'll say Ronan gets in for McQueen's Blitz right now and that Rossellini earns recognition for her role in Conclave.

Moore could always make waves here (if this is where Sony Pictures Classics decides to campaign for her), and we'll be watching to see what happens with Wicked for Grande.

Best Original Screenplay

• Anora (Sean Baker)

• The Brutalist (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold)

• Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain and Nicolas Livecchi)

• Hard Truths (Mike Leigh)

• September 5 (Tim Fehlbaum & Moritz Binder)

Five on the outside looking in: A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg), Blitz (Steve McQueen), Civil War (Alex Garland), The Room Next Door (Pedro Almodóvar), Saturday Night (Jason Reitman and Gil Kenan)

We're going to make a very early prediction that Baker wins his first Oscar for writing Anora, which is probably foolhardy at this point but it feels right to us... at least in the moment.

Watch out for Leigh, though, who might earn a career Oscar here for writing Hard Truths. The 81-year-old filmmaker has been nominated five times in the category with no wins in his celebrated career. Maybe this will be the film that does it?

Best Adapted Screenplay

• A Complete Unknown (Jay Cocks and James Mangold)

• Conclave (Peter Straughan)

• Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts)

• Gladiator II (David Scarpa)

• The Life of Chuck (Mike Flanagan)

Five on the outside looking in: Hit Man (Richard Linklater and Glen Powell), Inside Out 2 (Dave Holstein, Meg LeFauve and Kelsey Mann), Nickel Boys (Joslyn Barnes & RaMell Ross), The Piano Lesson (Malcolm Washington & Virgil Williams), Sing Sing (Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar)

This feels as unsettled as everything else. Sing Sing could easily get in here, but again, we're still waiting to see how that film branches out past its hushed release strategy. A Hit Man nomination would be so much fun. Imagine Adapted Screenplay being Powell's first Oscar nomination!

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Checking in on the 2025 Oscar race after the Toronto, Venice and Telluride film festivals