SAG-DGA Awards Analysis: A Mixed Bag For ‘Wicked’ As ‘A Complete Unknown’ Soars, And ‘Emilia Pérez’ Keeps Pace After Globes Wins

The awards gods continue to giveth, then taketh away for Wicked today. It led the field for its actors at the SAG Awards nominations, and then two and a half hours later saw its director Jon M. Chu snubbed in the DGA Awards nominations (more on that further down).

Today, with Oscar ballots now live, two key guilds — SAG-AFTRA and the Director Guild — announced nominees and this timing could definitely have an impact on the Academy Awards, whose voting has been extended two days to Tuesday because of the Los Angeles wildfires (and its nominations moved to Sunday, January 19).

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But first SAG, where the smash-hit musical adaptation received much love from the actors as they nominated it for a leading five awards — in every category including Stunt Ensemble in which it could complete — and threw in a shocker of British charmer Jonathan Bailey as the Prince Fiyero, who was on nobody’s predictions list for a Supporting Actor nomination; in fact, he knocked out favorites like Clarence Maclin of Sing Sing and Guy Pearce of The Brutalist to secure a slot. Bailey actually landed two nominations as he is individually and collectively nominated (as are castmates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande) because all are part of the nominated Cast award as well.

The SAG Awards, selected by a randomly chosen group of 2,500 SAG-AFTRA members (all 122,000 members will get a chance to vote on the final winners, including me), often uncannily mirror the ultimate Oscar champs. In fact, in the most recent SAG Awards shows, there has only been one difference in any of their categories, coming last year when Lily Gladstone won Lead Actress but Emma Stone took the Oscar. Otherwise, the guild and the Academy have been 100% in sync in those past three years, even the Cast award which is considered SAG-AFTRA’s version of Best Picture with wins for CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer. By the way, they really do like Gladstone as she is up again this year for her limited series Under the Bridge.

Bottom line: don’t underestimate SAG’s influence on Oscar as actors, with 1,258 eligible voting members, are by far the largest Academy branch and these nominations are coming the exact day Oscar voters get their ballots.

Most of those who landed SAG Awards film nominations are names bandied about now for much of the season, but as usual the guild offers up some mild surprises. This year it is the love for The Last Showgirl, which not only landed Pamela Anderson a lead actress nomination but also one for Jamie Lee Curtis, who won at SAG (and the Oscars) two years ago but landed a new nomination unexpectedly for her scene-stealing performance as a Vegas showgirl-turned-waitress. A nice surprise indeed considering the film only had a one-week qualifying run in December and opens wide this Friday (its premiere tonight was canceled due to the fires).

Anderson may be in, but Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres, Tilda Swinton and Kate Winslet are among the many in this most competitive year that are not. I know from direct discussions with some Academy acting branch members that Anderson’s personal story and triumphant turn as an aging showgirl who loses her long-running Vegas strip show is one that resonates. The other nominee with a great comeback story this year is newly minted Golden Globe winner Demi Moore for The Substance, and her SAG nomination probably cements a first-ever Oscar shot for the veteran star.

The casts and nominated actors from Anora, Emilia Pérez (coming off its Globes wins) and Conclave were to be expected (even though I had hoped Isabella Rossellini would get long-deserved individual recognition for the latter). Just a single Lead Actor nomination for Adrien Brody was less than I thought The Brutalist might muster, but coming off his Globes win it has been a very good week for the actor. The other Lead Actor Globe winner, Sebastian Stan, deserved a nomination but probably canceled himself out with his other performance in The Apprentice, which happily did land supporting actor Jeremy Strong SAG recognition for his stirring role as Trump mentor Roy Cohn.

Late-breaker A Complete Unknown, meanwhile, came roaring in with Timothee Chalamet’s Bob Dylan for lead actor, and supporting for Edward Norton as Pete Seeger and Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez (all proving it pays to play real people), plus an overall Cast nomination to become the other big story next to Wicked at SAG today. Clearly this film was liked even though it skipped the festival circuit and was one of the last of this year’s contenders to appear.

Wicked director Chu’s absence from the DGA list was a big blow. Usually the membership of the Directors Guild tends to be a bit more populist in their voting than the quirkier and more overall international-friendly 589-member Academy directors branch, so ignoring this blockbuster along with Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two was the mild surprise of the list that did include predictable nominations for Anora’s Sean Baker, Conclave’s Edward Berger, Emilia Pérez’s Jacques Audiard and Golden Globe winner Brady Corbet‘s The Brutalist. The inclusion of A Complete Unknown’s James Mangold is increasing proof that this Searchlight hit that opened Christmas Day is going to be the little engine that could this season since you can take a WGA nomination Thursday and a PGA nomination on Friday to the bank (BTW, Conclave, Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist are all ineligible at WGA).

Interestingly, all five nominees are first timers at the DGA competition and though Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) and Mangold (Ford v Ferrari , Logan) are no stranger to Oscars with both past Best Picture and Screenplay nominations (and a International Feature win for Berger), they would all be new to Oscar’s Best Director category if nominated.

As for the omission of Chu and Villeneuve, their movies are both being presented in “parts.” Chu’s Wicked doesn’t say it in the title, but it does at the end and it is part one of two. Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two absence after being nominated for Part One could be chalked up to the fact he has been virtually promising a Part Three. The thinking here could be both directors have a final part for which they could be recognized. It certainly worked out for Peter Jackson that way, didn’t it?

Nevertheless, SAG and the DGA have teed up a contest with no obvious clear favorite or winner at this point, and as Oscar voting goes on it will be crucial to see how this list affects that list. As always momentum is everything.

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