Oscar Shortlists Predictions: ‘Emilia Perez’ and ‘Wicked’ Look to Lead the Pack as Awards Season Ramps Up

Clayton Davis
·7-min read

From musicals and body horror to international gems and star-driven documentaries, Tuesday’s Oscar shortlists will reveal who’s acing awards season — and who might be struggling to pass.

The Oscar shortlists in 10 key categories are the awards season equivalent of midterm report cards. For studios and strategists, these announcements offer crucial insight into which contenders resonate with voters and which campaigns might run out of steam. As the industry braces for surprises and snubs, some big players are poised to lead the charge, while others hope for last-minute breakthroughs.

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Last year, Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” dominated the shortlists with five mentions, including sound, original score and three songs. However, its omission from makeup and hairstyling — a category where it seemed like a shoo-in — hinted at possible vulnerabilities. Ultimately, the film landed eight Oscar nominations, winning one for Billie Eilish and Finneas’ poignant original song, “What Was I Made For?”

This year, the stakes feel just as high. Which films will dominate tomorrow’s announcement, and what clues will they offer about the road ahead?

Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez” is widely expected to lead the shortlist pack. With standout contenders in original song (“El Mal” and “Mi Camino”), international feature, sound, makeup and hairstyling and original score, the film could secure as many as six mentions. Such a strong showing would set it up well heading into January, especially with the BAFTA longlist just weeks away.

Meanwhile, Jon M. Chu’s highly anticipated “Wicked” continues to build momentum. Though it lacks original songs to compete in the music categories, the film has a strong shot in technical areas like makeup and hairstyling, sound, visual effects and the expanded original score category. A strong showing tomorrow could solidify “Wicked” as a frontrunner across multiple crafts categories, further positioning it as a more likely best picture nominee.

One of the season’s most surprising success stories, Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror thriller “The Substance” has outperformed expectations for its genre. After scoring five Golden Globe nominations and seven Critics Choice mentions, the film faces its biggest test yet: the Oscar shortlists.

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As Variety exclusively reported, “The Substance” is among the 20 films on the visual effects longlist circulated to AMPAS members. If it can land in the final 10 for VFX tomorrow — and secure a mention for Raffertie’s pulse-pounding original score — it could bolster its case as a legitimate best picture contender. For skeptics who think genre films rarely make the cut, this could be the movie to watch.

The international feature race remains as competitive as ever, with several presumed frontrunners jockeying for position. Denmark’s “The Girl With the Needle,” Brazil’s “I’m Still Here” and Germany’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” are widely considered locks for the shortlist.

But the category is no stranger to surprises. Horror entry “The Devil’s Bath” has been building quiet buzz. At the same time, India’s “Lucky Ladies” (also known as “Laapataa Ladies”) could make waves after being selected over Payal Kapadia’s critically lauded “All We Imagine as Light.” With the Academy’s international voters often championing bold and unconventional films, expect a few curveballs in tomorrow’s lineup.

The documentary feature shortlist will likely be a battleground between celebrity-driven projects and more traditional awards contenders. Netflix’s “Daughters,” Kino Lorber’s “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat,” and the critical favorite “No Other Land” (still searching for U.S. distribution) are all expected to land on the list.

But star-studded offerings like “Will & Harper” (a tender road trip adventure following Will Ferrell and his friend Harper Steele after she comes out as a trans woman), “Frida” (a deep dive into the legacy of artist Frida Kahlo), and “Luther: Never Too Much” (a documentary about the life and music of Luther Vandross) could disrupt the race. While documentaries with celebrity subjects often polarize voters, their popularity with audiences can’t be ignored.

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When it comes to the shorts, there just isn’t enough data to support making shot-in-the-dark predictions, but watch out for the live-action short “Ripe!,” Oscar winner Ben Proudfoot’s doc short “The Turnaround,” and the animated “An Almost Christmas Story.”

The final predictions on what will show up are below. The shortlist in 10 categories will be announced on Tuesday, Dec. 17.

See all Academy Award predictions


Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

International Feature

  • “Armand” (IFC Films) from Norway

  • “Dahomey” (Mubi) from Senegal

  • “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) from France

  • “Flow” (Janus Films and Sideshow) from Latvia

  • “The Girl With the Needle” (Mubi) from Denmark

  • “Grand Tour” (Mubi) from Portugal

  • “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) from Brazil

  • “In Her Place” (Netflix) from Chile

  • “Laapataa Ladies” (T-Series) from India

  • “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) from Ireland

  • “Santosh” (Metrograph Pictures) from United Kingdom

  • “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) from Germany

  • “Sujo” (The Forge) from Mexico

  • “Waves” (No U.S. Distribution) from Czech Republic

  • “Vermiglio” (Janus Films) from Italy

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On the bubble: “The Devil’s Bath” (IFC Films/Shudder) from Austria; “Touch” (Focus Features) from Iceland; “Universal Language” (Oscilloscope Laboratories) from Canada

Documentary Feature

  • “Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)

  • “The Commandant’s Shadow” (HBO Documentary Films)

  • “Dahomey” (Mubi)

  • “Daughters” (Netflix)

  • “Ernest Cole: Lost and Found” (Magnolia Pictures)

  • “Hollywoodgate” (Fourth Act Film)

  • “Invisible Nation” (Abramorama)

  • “Look Into My Eyes” (A24)

  • “Mediha” (Enderby Entertainment)

  • “No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)

  • “Porcelain War” (Picturehouse)

  • “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)

  • “Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)

  • “Will & Harper” (Netflix)

  • “Union” (Level Ground)

On the bubble: “Frida” (Amazon MGM); “Luther: Never Too Much” (CNN Films); “Power” (Netflix)

Original Score

  • “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Hans Zimmer

  • “The Brutalist” (A24) — Daniel Blumberg

  • “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

  • “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Volker Bertelmann

  • “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — Clément Ducol, Camille

  • “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Gints Zilbalodis, Rihards Zalupe

  • “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) — Harry Gregson-Williams

  • “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) — Gary Yershon

  • “Here” (Sony Pictures) — Alan Silvestri

  • “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.) — John Debney

  • “Inside Out 2” (Pixar) — Andrea Datzman

  • “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jerskin Fendrix

  • “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Mark Mancina, Opetaia Foaʻi

  • “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) — Alex Somers, Scott Alario

  • “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat

  • “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Alberto Iglesias

  • “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) — Jon Batiste

  • “The Substance” (Mubi) — Raffertie

  • “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) — Stephen Schwartz and John Powell

  • “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Kris Bowers

On the bubble: “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.) — Tom Holkenborg; “IF” (Paramount Pictures) — Michael Giacchino; “Queer” (A24) — Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Original Song

  • “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) — “Forbidden Road” by Robbie Williams, Freddy Wexler & Sacha Skarbek

  • “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — “Compress/Regress” by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Luca Guadagnino

  • “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Never Too Late” by Elton John & Brandi Carlile

  • “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — “El Mal” by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard

  • “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — “Mi Camino” by Clément Ducol and Camille

  • “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM) — “The Idea of You” by Savan Kotecha, Albin Nedler & Carl Falk

  • “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “Sick In The Head” by Móglaí Bap, Mo Chara, DJ Próvaí, Adrian Louis Richard Mcleod, and Toddla T

  • “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions) — “Beautiful That Way” by Miley Cyrus, Lykke Li, and Andrew Wyatt

  • “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Beyond” by Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear

  • “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “I Always Wanted a Brother” by Lin-Manuel Miranda

  • “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) — “Piece by Piece” by Pharrell Williams

  • “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) — “The Journey” by Diane Warren

  • “Twisters” (Universal Pictures) — “Out of Oklahoma” by Lainey Wilson, Luke Dick & Shane McAnally

  • “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Kiss the Sky” by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi

  • “Will & Harper” (Netflix) — “Harper and Will Go West” by Sean Douglas, Kristen Wiig & Josh Greenbaum

On the bubble: “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — “Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson; “Cabrini” (Angel Studios) — “Dare to Be” by Andrea Bocelli, Gene Back, Giovanni Caccomo & Courtney Rodriguez; “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) — “Folie à Deux” by Lady Gaga; “Queer” (A24) — “Vaster Than Empires” by William Burroughs, Trent Reznor, and Atticus Ross; “Sing Sing” (A24) — “Like a Bird” by Abraham Alexander, Brandon Marcel & Adrian Quesada

Makeup and Hairstyling

  • “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)

  • “A Different Man” (A24)

  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

  • “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

  • “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

  • “Maria” (Netflix)

  • “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

  • “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)

  • “The Substance” (Mubi)

  • “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

On the bubble: “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.); “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures); “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures); “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios); “The Deliverance” (Netflix); “MaXXXine” (A24)

Sound

  • “The Brutalist” (A24)

  • “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • “Conclave” (Focus Features)

  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

  • “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

  • “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

  • “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)

  • “A Quiet Place: Day One” (Paramount Pictures)

  • “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

  • “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

On the bubble: “Blitz” (Apple Original Films); “Challengers” (Amazon MGM); “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.); “Inside Out 2″ (Pixar); “A Quiet Place: Day One” (Paramount Pictures)

Visual Effects

  • “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)

  • “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)

  • “Deadpool and Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)

  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

  • “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)

  • “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

  • “Here” (Sony Pictures)

  • “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)

  • “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  • “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

On the bubble: “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” (Warner Bros.); “The Substance” (Mubi); “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)

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