Yahoo Lifestyle ‘Sonic’ & ‘Mufasa’ Brawl Over No. 1; ‘Nosferatu’ Feasts $40M+; ‘A Complete Unknown’ Rockin’ $23M+ 5-Day — Post-Christmas Box Office Update
SUNDAY AM EARLY WRITETHRU after Sunday AM Update: Lion and land critter continued to go at like an episode of Mutual Omaha’s Wild Kingdom this weekend with each studio screaming that they’re No. 1. If you look at the standard 3-day weekend, it’s Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 with $38M while Disney’s Mufasa is looking at an estimated $37M. However, on the five-day measure which saw The Lion King prequel rise from the dust on Christmas Day and Dec. 26 in its dailies, Mufasa takes the lead with $63.7M. We’re still waiting on Disney official numbers, but not much has changed since yesterday.
Saturday was a close call for both family movies with Sonic 3 seeing $13.5M, and Mufasa and an estimated $13.3M. However, it wasn’t a Christmas of cannibalization as there was room for four family movies, the Thanksgiving holdovers of Universal’s Wicked and Disney’s Moana 2. For all the concern that similar demo movies could eat each other up, here’s a scenario of all boats rise with the 3-day overall weekend at $161M, +43% over the near New Year’s Eve weekend of last year and 56% ahead of the same frame at the tail end of 2022 when Avatar: The Way of Water was soaking up most of the business in a deep freeze winter.
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That said, the overall Christmas week of Dec. 20-26 amounted to $263M per Box Office Mojo, which was down from last year’s holiday week (Dec. 22-28) of $279.9M by 6%. Note Christmas fell on a Monday last year which fuels more of a four-day weekend. The last time Christmas fell on a Wednesday was in pre- Covid 2019 when Disney/Lucasfilm’ Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker rallied all movies to a massive week of $485.5M (the J.J. Abrams movie being responsible for 60% of the marketplace).
Another record notched by Jon M. Chu’s Wicked: The movie surpassed Mamma Mia globally ($611.4M) this weekend to become the No.1 stage musical adaptation at the global box office. Wicked’s global cume to-date currently stands at $634.379M.
Opening weekend PostTrak exits showed that Wicked leaned largely toward older women at 48% over 25, with the 13-17 demo at 7% but c’mon, what mother isn’t taking her girls to see Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo? Universal may want to have second thoughts about pulling the Jon M. Chu directed movie from its Dec. 31 PVOD date as the highest grossing feature take of a Broadway musical saw a +36% 3-day surge in its sixth frame with $19.2M in third place and a 5-day of $31.5M and a running total of $423.9M.
Moana 2 is seeing an $18.3M 5th weekend, also up 39%, with a 5-day of $28.3M.
After a $7.8M Saturday, The 3-day on Focus Features’ Nosferatu moves to $21.1M with a 5-day of $40.3M. As we mentioned previously that’s the fourth best opening for Focus Features after Downton Abbey ($31M), Insidious 3 ($23.7M) and London Has Fallen ($21.6M). In fact any time Focus opens a movie to north of $20M, that’s reason to send off bullhorns. Post Covid, with NBCUniversal dictating all these financial theatrical-day window terms on Focus Features (most of the label’s titles went 18-days to PVOD in 2023 except for Conclave and Housekeeping for Beginners which were at 32 days), it felt like this label couldn’t shine in the marketplace like they did pre-Covid. However, Nosferatu provides hope that the Lost in Translation studio still has it.
Reasons on PostTrak why audiences attended Nosferatu include the horror genre (48%), director Robert Eggers (32%), while 33% thought the fanged monster and babe feature looked fun and entertaining. Lots of walk-up business with 59% of the audience buying their tickets same day. What type of ads influenced the audience the most to find this movie? Of those polled, 22% cited social media, while 16% said friends and family with 11% saying in-theater trailer. Breakdown of demos were men over 25 (41%), women over 25 (33%), women under 25 (14%) and men under 25 (13%). The best grades for this movie came from the 25-34 demo (81%) and 35-44 (81%).
Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown at an estimated 3-day of $11.6M and 5-day of $23.2M also saw notable walk-up at 62%. So far, those opening figures are the best for the Disney-owned 20th Century Fox classic label post the 2019 merger as well as COVID. Reasons why people went: 53% bought tickets because it was a Bob Dylan movie, 36% went for Timothée Chalamet, while 20% went for the cast as a whole, which included Monica Barbaro, Elle Fanning and Edward Norton. 50/50 male-female split as of last night on PostTrak with 42% women over 25 who gave the movie its best grade at 94%, men over 25 at 40% with a 91% grade, 10% men under 25 (84% grade) while women under 25 at 8% trailed (with an 89% grade).
Mufasa (Dis) 4,100 theaters, Fri $12M (-9%) Sat $13.3M Sun $11.7M 3-day $37M (+4%), 5-day $63.7M, Total $111.4M/Wk 2
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Par) 3,769 (+8) theaters, Fri $12.6M (-50%) Sat $13.5M Sun $11.9M 3-day $38M (-38%), 5-day $59.9M, Total $137.55M/Wk 2
Nosferatu (Foc) 2,992 theaters, Fri $7.25M, Sat $7.8M Sun $6M 3-day $21.1M, 5-day $40.3M/Wk 1
Wicked (Uni) 3,177 (-119) theaters, Fri $6.8M (+83%) Sat $6.8M Sun $5.79M 3-day $19.4M (+37%), 5-day $31.7M, Total $424.2M/Wk 6
Moana 2 (Dis) 3410 (-190) theaters, Fri $6.3M (+7%) Sat $6.4M Sun $5.6M 3-day $18.3M (+39%), 5-day $28.3M, Total $394.2M/Wk 5
A Complete Unknown (Sea) 2,835 theaters, Fri $3.9M, Sat $4.1M Sun $3.5M 3-day $11.6M, 5-day $23M/Wk 1
Babygirl (A24) 2,115 theaters, Fri $1.4M, Sat $1.6M Sun $1.3M 3-day $4.39M, 5-day $7.2M/Wk 1
Gladiator 2 (Par) 1,865 (-532) theaters, Fri $1.3M (+8%) Sat $1.5M Sun $1.27M 3-day $4.1M (-9%), 5 day $6.89M, Total $163M/Wk 6
Homestead (Angel) 1,769 (-117) theaters, Fri $980K (-66%) Sat $1.1M Sun $990K 3-day $3M (-50%), 5-day $5.2M, Total $12.7M/Wk 2
The Fire Inside (Amz) 2006 theaters, Fri $653K, Sat $753K Sun $625K 3-day $2M, 5-day $4.33M/Wk 1
Notables: The Brutalist (A24) 7 screens, Wed $75K, Th $54,7K, Fri $63K Sat $73,7K Sun $66,3K 3-day $203K, 5-day $332,8K, Total $687,4K/Wk 2
FRIDAY a.m.: Mufasa continued to get from the count on Thursday, beating Sonic The Hedgehog 3, $12M to $11.55M. The 3-day and 5-days on these two family movies are expected to be close. Mufasa is currently looking to be the stronger at $58M. Running total through yesterday on Mufasa is $76.4M while Sonic 3 stands at $99.55M.
But enough about those filthy animals, the real story over the holiday are the classic labels, Focus Features and Searchlight which are both seeing record openings. Post-COVID, Focus Features rose from the ashes this weekend to remind the town how hip they can make movies — the win here being Robert Eggers’ gothic vampire movie Nosferatu which is eyeing a $21.4M 3-day and $40.6M 5-day after $7.6M yesterday, the pic’s second day of release. At five days, that’s the biggest Focus Features opening ever, besting the Friday-Tuesday take of 2019’s Downton Abbey which did $38.4M. At 3-days, Nosferatu is bound to rank as the fourth best for Focus after Downton Abbey ($31M), Insidious 3 ($23.7M) and London Has Fallen ($21.6M) — still excellent for this arthouse label which has been guard-railed by Comcast Universal’s 17-day PVOD window. The 55% male-skewing, 4-star PostTrak Nosferatu is also easily the best opening for Focus Features post-pandemic ahead of 2022’s Downton Abbey: The New Era, which did $16M. As we mentioned, Nosferatu is filmmaker Eggers’ best opening of his career, ahead of New Regency/Focus Features’ The Northman ($12.2M). The 7 p.m. at the Alamo Drafthouse in Yonkers, New York last night for this Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hoult, Bill Skarsgard and Aaron Taylor-Johnson feature was completely sold out.
Similar applause here for Searchlight with James Mangold’s Bob Dylan movie, A Complete Unknown, which is seeing a $12M 3-day and $24M 5-day. For the classic label, it’s the best opening they’ve seen post the 2019 Disney merger. For reference, the top three Searchlight openings ever belong to 2009’s Notorious ($20M), 2006’s The Hills Have Eyes ($15.7M) and 2018’s Super Troopers 2 ($15.1M).
In a theatrical marketplace which continues to compete with streaming on mid-sized films, the success here for Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown should be duly noted and provide plenty of hope for the greenlighting of such fare as we head into a 2025 box office year, untainted by strikes and (knock on wood) a pandemic. What’s working here? In Nosferatu it’s the tried-and true horror genre at work but in the hands of a rising cool auteur in Eggers, who is making a name for himself among the hipster 18-34 (56%) à la Ari Aster. With A Complete Unknown, it’s an all-accessible movie about Dylan which adults (62% over 35) haven’t had before in the hands of a director who knows how to create passion and warmth from the warts and all of such onstage artists (read, the Oscar-winning Walk the Line which opened to $22.3M and legged out to $119.5M domestic).
Juxtapose Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown to the non-franchise adult openings of last Christmas: The $8M period drama The Boys in the Boat, the Michael Mann dark drama Ferrari ($3.9M), the tragic A24 wrestling dynasty drama The Iron Claw ($4.8M) and the very front-loaded The Color Purple ($11.7M 3-day), which finaled at $60.6M.
Also, let’s not ignore that when it comes to launching these two movies — there’s no better time than now when everyone is going.
Universal’s Wicked made $6.89M in fourth place yesterday behind Nosferatu ending its fifth week at $34.3M and crossing the four century mark with $404.7M. The five-day outlook is $35.5M. The Jon M. Chu-directed movie hits PVOD and digital Dec. 31.
Disney’s Moana 2 is seeing a 5-day of $27M. Yesterday was $5.7M for a $30.3M fourth week and a running total of $376.2M.
A24’s very R-rated office romance drama Babygirl starring Nicole Kidman and Harris Dickinson made $1.3M yesterday, -13% from its Christmas Day of $1.5M for a running total of $2.8M. 5-day outlook is just under $7M.
Amazon MGM Studios’ The Fire Inside grossed $613K on Thursday, -64% from Christmas. The Rachel Morrison young woman’s boxing movie is looking at a 5-day of $4.3M in 10th place.
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