Yahoo Lifestyle Who Is Going To Win At The Oscars?
The cast of Birdman at the SAGs. Photo: Getty
Oscars voting has officially closed. The films have been meticulously scrutinised and the ballots are in. Now, all that remains is for two senior accountants from Price Waterhouse Coopers in Los Angeles to count each vote (by hand!) - and the results will be revealed at the ceremony on Monday morning (our time).
Who will win? If only it were easy to predict. The Academy Awards are notorious for throwing surprises and shock upsets into the mix at every ceremony. Not to mention the fact that voting can be political: a lot of it comes down to how palatable the film is, how much the movie’s stars hit the red carpet promoting it, and whether the film is powerful enough to stay in the forefront of voters' minds for the month that it takes between the release of the nominations and the close of voting.
But enough of that. Who will win? That’s a good question.
Read on for our picks…
Julianne Moore at the Golden Globes. Photo: Getty
At least three categories are relatively stitched up at this point. Best Actress is a one-horse race: Julianne Moore’s powerful portrayal of a woman with early onset Alzheimers in Still Alice has won every major award from the Golden Globes to the BAFTAs, cementing her status as the frontrunner to take home a little gold man on Monday. From the other nominees, only Marion Cotillard stands a chance at an upset. Cotillard’s bereft working mother in Two Days One Night hasn’t been nominated for any other major awards, which means she hasn’t competed against Moore (and the other nominees Reese Witherspoon, Rosamund Pike and Felicity Jones) yet. You never know. It’s happened before: Adrien Brody took home the Best Actor Oscar (over Jack Nicholson, Nicolas Cage and Michael Caine) in 2003 with no previous awards on his shelf from the season.
Best Supporting Actor is also looking like a slam-dunk. J K Simmons’ turn as a domineering, overbearing teacher in Whiplash has seen him pick up awards left right and centre. He’s a character actor finally stepping into the limelight – a narrative arc that the Academy loves – and his character is the villain, something else the Academy loves (Heath Ledger, Javier Bardem and Christoph Waltz have all won in this category with a villainous turn). Sorry Ethan Hawke, Edward Norton, Mark Ruffalo and Robert Duvall, it’s just not going to happen for you this year.
Best Supporting Actress also has a clear frontrunner. Patricia Arquette is the heart of Boyhood with a profoundly powerful turn as a single mother trying to do her best for her children and watching them grow up over the course of 12 years. While we love Emma Stone’s blistering turn as a recovering drug addict in Birdman, we don’t think that she stands a chance to rain on Arquette’s parade next week. Same goes for Meryl Streep, Laura Dern and Keira Knightley.
Ellar Coltrane, star of Boyhood. Photo: Getty
Speaking of Boyhood… The big question is whether or not this quiet and un-showy film can take home the Oscars’ highest honour, Best Picture, on Monday. Shot over the course of 12 years, the film tells the story of a boy moving from childhood to adolescence. The core group of actors and crew reconvened every year in Austin to film a few weeks of footage that, in the hands of director Richard Linklater, assembled itself into one of the year’s most moving pieces of cinema. But can it win Best Picture without outrageous special effects or mind-blowing cinematography, without ostentatious acting turns or knowing satire and in-jokes?
Boyhood picked up prizes at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, both of which have a history of predicting the Oscar. But Birdman – its biggest opposition – has swept the guild awards, taking out Best Picture (or its equivalent) at the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild. In the past ten years, no film has won all three guild awards and then lost at the Oscars. It’s a tight race and it’s hard to call, but hey, just because we want it to happen, we’re backing Boyhood. Birdman might be everything awards shows love – self-referential plot about Hollywood’s demise, a cast of blue-chip actors transforming themselves in roles, and an innovative piece of camerawork to string the whole thing together – but Boyhood really was last year’s best picture.
That brings us to Best Director. For the past two years, the Oscars have split the Best Picture and Best Director awards. Ang Lee took home the award for Life of Pi even though Argo went on to win Best Picture in 2013. Last year, it was a split between Alfonso Cuaron, who won Best Director for Gravity while 12 Years A Slave was crowned Best Picture. This year the awards will probably be split again. Whoever wins Best Film is not going to win Best Director. While it would be nice for Richard Linklater to take home both awards, our gut feeling says Boyhood wins the top prize while Birdman’s director Alejandro Gonzales Innaritu is named Best Director.
Eddie Redmayne at the SAGs. Photo: Getty
The battle between Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton for Best Actor will also be Oscars night’s biggest scope for surprise and shock. Redmayne has won most of the major awards for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking in The Theory Of Everything, but Keaton is a Hollywood veteran with a career comeback, something that the Academy loves to award. He’s also the lead role in Birdman, a film that (depending on which side of the fence you sit) just might take home the Best Picture prize. That means something. Is it enough to push Keaton over the line? We’re predicting Redmayne taking home best actor, by a hair, making him one of the youngest Best Actor winners of all time (the youngest is still our old friend Adrien Brody, who was 29 when he won in 2003).
Stay tuned to marieclaire.com.au for all our Oscars coverage on Monday.
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