Yahoo Lifestyle Jeff Probst Reveals What Made Him Accept That Shocking 'Survivor 47' Deal
WARNING! The following article contains spoilers for Survivor 47 Episode 10. Please do not scroll any further if you do not want to learn the events of this week's episode.
When Survivor kicked off its "new era" in 2021, it brought in a litany of tweaks to a game that had been running two decades up to that point. The Shot in the Dark was a way to give everyone a form of advantage from the jump. At any point, a person could throw the ultimate Hail Mary at Tribal Council, exchanging their vote for a one-sixth chance at safety. Another change came when, to partially compensate for the 26-day filming schedule, tribes were not given rice to start the game. Instead, Jeff Probst would come to them halfway through the game with an offer to make: If a certain amount of people sit out the next challenge, then the entire tribe would get rice.
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"We didn't originally set out to have a rice negotiation become part of the format," the host and showrunner admits on "On Fire: The Official Survivor Podcast." "One of the things we decided was we're not going to have any food at the start of the game. So then the next decision we had to make is, how many days do we think they can go without any food at all? What's the worst-case scenario for how long a player can go? And we landed, after talking with our medical team at somewhere around 15, 16, 17, days."
Once they've settled on the timing, it was a matter of the technique. If there's one theme across the theme-less new era, it's the idea of the castaways needing to "earn" the most basic necessities while out there. The tribes need to pass an initial challenge to win a pot, machete, and flint. They lose said flint upon the next challenge they lose. Even a celebration like the merge has its own barrier to entry. So this version of "earning it" was settled on getting rice only in exchange for a certain percentage of the tribe giving up a shot at immunity.
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While production figured out the "when" and the "how," the fans have spent the past couple of years looking at the rice negotiation and asking "why"? Despite its intention to not become a mainstay, the event to get a camp staple has become a staple of the new era, featured in every season. Some question the very definition of the rice "negotiation," as Probst now comes into the reaction with a first and final offer, no budging.
For what it's worth, the past two seasons saw some tweaks to the milestone in and of itself. Survivor 45 for instance, had the host curtailing any hemming and hawing, stunningly brandishing a knife and cutting open the rice bag to hurry along the decision-making. Survivor 46 made history in many different ways, one of them being that, for the first time, the players were not able to meet the threshold to get rice. A couple of episodes later, a counteroffer was made to offer people individual portions in exchange for sitting out.
When Probst brought out the bag of rice in Survivor 47, it began on familiar beats. He said that four people, nearly half of the nine remaining contestants, had to sit out to get the rice. Gabe Ortis offered three. No dice. Caroline Vidmar said she'd give her Shot in the Dark. Easily shot down. But not by Kyle Ostwald, who one-upped Caroline's offer. If they all offered up their Shots in the Dark, sacrificing their opportunity to play it for the rest of the season, would that be enough to get rice?
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"The offer to sacrifice all their shots in the dark in exchange for rice played out in real-time. So my decision was also happening in real-time," Probst explains. "And in moments like that, you're quickly using your critical thinking to go through a mental checklist of any really obvious game-breaking problems that this deal might cause. You're also weighing the value of the offer. Is this a real sacrifice for them? Is it worth the rice? You're also still in host mode, so you're having a conversation with the group while you're watching the reactions of the players to see if there's any story coming from this, like Sam having to be talked into it."
Indeed, as Probst was trying to mull through all these questions in his head, Sam Phalen was speaking them out loud. He openly admitted he was on the bottom, and giving away his Shot in the Dark would possibly rob him of a future opportunity to get out of a tight situation. At the same time, he didn't want to be the one person to cost eight others food, as that would guarantee he'd have his Shot, but almost no allies. Gabe was able to make the winning pitch, gloating in confessional about it (Sam would later get the last laugh, being part of the force to blindside Gabe).
"Hanging above all of these other considerations is the human in me, thinking, 'These are real people. They're busting their butts in this game. That's good. The gameplay is so tight, nobody wants to give up their shot at immunity. That's good. And they've come up with a pretty inventive idea. That's also good. So Jeff, you got to really consider it.' And finally, I'm also considering the impact of the obvious thing, which is, you're losing that dramatic element at Tribal, which does create a lot of uncertainty. So after considering all of this during that 10 seconds, I ultimately felt it was a very strong offer and quite likely to result down the line in at least one player at some point regretting their decision to give up their Hail Mary."
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Indeed, Probst agreed to the deal, eagerly collecting everyone's Shots (except Rachel LaMont, who had played hers two rounds ago). It's far from what he expected coming into the Immunity Challenge that day. It's one of the rare instances of the players being able to use the tools production gives them to build something creative and unexpected. Does the lack of a Shot in the Dark in the rest of the season mean people will be less cautious about handling blindsides, as Probst and Andy Rueda allege? Perhaps. Will people have regrets in giving up a pocketed shot at safety for a belly of rice? Genevieve Mushaluk already had by the end of the day.
But no matter how this left turn of an ending for the rice negotiation affects the rest of Survivor 47, Probst wants to make one thing clear. Just like twists from previous episodes like hiding idol clues in the auction items, future Survivor castaways shouldn't expect moments like these as a guarantee moving forward.
"Remember, future players," he warns, "every season is unique for the players. It's also unique for me. So I go back to a familiar refrain: Survivor history is merely an indicator of what has happened, but not a predictor of what might happen in the future."
