5 Oscar takeaways from the 2025 SAG Award nominations, including why there still isn't a Best Picture frontrunner

Wednesday morning brought us the 2025 Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations, which featured some expected inclusions and some real surprises.

Best Picture contenders like Emilia Pérez, Conclave, Anora and Wicked all fared well with the largest guild in Hollywood, albeit one that will always reflect its personal tastes as opposed to the Academy Awards.

When trying to figure out what to seriously consider with the SAG nominations for the Oscars and what to write off as an isolated nomination, you have to consider how the two groups historically line up and how the Academy is changing from where it was even a decade ago.

As we survey this latest group of SAG nominees, let's see what the Oscar takeaways are as we get closer to nomination morning next Friday.

It's still really hard to declare a Best Picture frontrunner

After months and months of waiting, it still feels like we have no idea which film is the de-facto Best Picture frontrunner. It's a bit bewildering that you still can't say with confidence that we have a film to beat, as we did in 2023 with Oppenheimer and in 2022 with Everything Everywhere All at Once.

You could make an argument right now any of these films: Emilia Pérez, Conclave, Anora, Wicked or even The Brutalist. Four of those films occupied spots in SAG's film ensemble category, with The Brutalist missing that field but landing a nomination in the best actor category for Adrien Brody.

All five of those films figure to register below the line with the Academy with multiple nominations, and four of those films logged multiple nominations on Wednesday with the biggest industry guild around. (More on The Brutalist missing some key spots here in a second.)

As things stand right now, all five of these films could win Best Picture in March. They will all be nominated in that category on Jan. 17 by the Oscar voters barring a genuine shock, and the only real show of strength for these films over the other will be how many nominations they land with the overall Academy. Until we learn more, don't discount any of these films' chances of going the distance.

The Brutalist should be fine despite its SAG misses

The Brutalist is this year's Best Picture contender to miss out on the SAG ensemble field, which some consider a bad sign for claiming the top Oscar prize. Well, recent history shows that films can indeed go on to win Best Picture without netting an ensemble nomination with SAG.

Nomadland (2020), Green Book (2018) and The Shape of Water (2017) all went on to take Best Picture without SAG ensemble nominations. However, only one of those films, The Shape of Water, had as expansive an ensemble as The Brutalist.

Missing out on a SAG ensemble nomination may position The Brutalist a bit behind the four films that did register and have a chance at Oscar glory (sans A Complete Unknown, which is just an ensemble nominee because its starry cast playing real-life people, a SAG staple).

Brady Corbet's critically adored epic should be just fine going into the Oscars, even if its prospects at major awards may line up best with Brody's performance and Corbet's direction. Best Picture is probably a bit of a tougher climb uphill, even with surprise success with the Golden Globes.

Also, don't worry too much about Guy Pearce and Felicity Jones missing out on the supporting categories with SAG. The international voters will be kinder to The Brutalist than a populist voting body like the Screen Actors Guild, which will help Pearce and Jones for Oscar nominations.

Denzel Washington is probably missing out on the Oscars for Gladiator II

After months of wondering if Denzel Washington was going to win Best Supporting Actor for his electric turn as Gladiator II's antagonist, the SAG nominations dealt him (and the film) a blow.

Washington not registering in the SAG's supporting actor category should pause any talk of him even getting nominated with the Oscars, much less winning. Of all the voting groups, the broader acting guild should be the one most likely to honor a movie star in a blockbuster.

Gladiator II's Oscar prospects have taken serious water as of late, but it seemed like Washington would weather the storm and still get at least nominated for Best Supporting Actor. This probably isn't happening now; Washington missing with the Screen Actors Guild is probably the indicator.

Angelina Jolie still has hope for a nomination in Best Actress

Angelina Jolie being left out of SAG's best actress category for her portrayal of opera singer Maria Callas in Pablo Larraín's Maria might come as a surprise. This is the type of performance the actors usually recognize, so what gives?

Consider Kristin Stewart and 2021's Spencer, Larraín's second in a now-trilogy of films studying consequential women in history. Stewart missed out on a SAG nomination for her portrayal of Diana, Princess of Wales, back when that film was contending. The miss made her Oscar prospects look pretty unlikely until she still made it into the Academy five for Best Actress.

Perhaps Jolie will follow in Stewart's footsteps by making it with the Oscar voters over the SAG voters. Jolie getting the Oscar spot would make it three-for-three for Larraín's trilogy leads in Best Actress (Natalie Portman also made it for 2016's Jackie). Even if the SAG miss makes it a bit tougher for Jolie, there is a very recent example of a similar contender still finding Oscar love.

The international voters will change this up for the Oscars

The SAG nominations certainly represent the biggest guild in Hollywood, but the actual Academy is far more international and artsy in their recent picks compared to the more populist SAG voters.

That's why you can't discount the big international contenders in the acting categories despite them not registering with SAG. Best Actress contenders like Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) and Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) are excellent examples of actors who have better odds of earning Oscar nominations than SAG nominations.

It's also why surprise SAG nominations for Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis for The Last Showgirl and Jonathan Bailey for Wicked in particular feel more isolated to the SAGs than Oscars. It's harder to see a more international Oscars ignoring actors from The Brutalist or some of the year's biggest global contenders over far more American fare like The Last Showgirl and Wicked.

Just look at the supporting actress category. SAG omissions like The Brutalist's Jones, The Substance's Margaret Qualley and especially Conclave's Isabella Rossellini have much better chances to register with international voters than SAG contenders like A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro and Curtis. However, it's great to see Danielle Deadwyler make it in with SAG for The Piano Lesson; she could very well repeat at the Oscars since hers is a more Academy-friendly project.

Always remember: the SAGs do their own thing. They are not nearly as predictive for the Oscars as they used to be with nominations, even if the two groups inevitably line up in certain places. Winners are a bit more prescient at this awards show than nominees, so we'll have to wait until Feb. 23 to know how much this looms over the Oscars. Even then, it's never perfectly matched.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: 5 Oscar takeaways from the 2025 SAG Award nominations, including why there still isn't a Best Picture frontrunner