Who Will Win 'RuPaul's Drag Race' Season 16? Episode 4 Power Rankings

We're four episodes into RuPaul's Drag Race Season 16 and we've finally started to trim the field. With the queens each competing in their third challenge, we're getting a good sense of who the frontrunners are (and who they are not).

This week we also said goodbye to Mirage, who was unceremoniously chopped after I'd ranked her 7th last week out of 13. I'm slightly peeved that Mirage, who I enjoyed watching and seemingly had plenty left to offer the competition in way of lip syncs and runways if nothing else, was bumped before some of the others who are already struggling, but alas, there's nothing I can do there.

Related: 'RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars 8' Take New York. Next Stop: the World.

Which brings us to the question: Who will win Season 16 of RuPaul's Drag Race?

To that end, I've put together a ranking of the 12 remaining queens competing on this season, ordered from least likely to most likely to be crowned America's Next Drag Superstar. It's a power ranking if you will, and while there are supposed spoilers on dark corners of the internet, I haven't read any of them. This ranking is also based on how likely the queen is to WIN the competition, not just go far.

If you want to take a look at last week's ranking, here you go.

Feel free to swing back to Parade from week to week because I will be updating as the season progresses.

RuPaul's Drag Race Season 16 Episode 4 power rankings:

12. Geneva Karr

Last Week: Eighth
Track Record: Top, Bottom, Bottom

With two lip syncs in a row, and really only surviving this week due to Mirage miraculously not knowing the lyrics to Cher (somehow more damning that Geneva not knowing who Lindsay Graham was), Geneva seems not long for this world. I cannot imagine a scenario in which she survives a third lip sync, whether that be next week or shortly thereafter.

11. Mhi'ya Iman Le'Paige

Last Week: Thirteenth
Track Record: Safe, Bottom, Bottom

The #QueenofFlips has been circling the bottom for several weeks now, but keeps squeaking by (perhaps because her wig and wardrobe were from the same decade, which is now seemingly a judging criteria on the show). While I do feel like she's got at least one epic lip sync in her before she's booted, her days seem to be numbered. That being said, perhaps her bad Cher impersonation has endeared her enough to Ru to survive a few more weeks.

10. Megami

Last Week: Twelth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe

I lowkey hated this week's challenge, which had the queens trying to squeeze dribbles of comedy out of a series of bland sketches. Megami spent lots of time telling Plane Jane that they were both funny slutty girls, but Megami did just as averagely as everyone else. Three safes in a row, however, does not scream "winner of the season." She did at least deliver the better version of Mhi'ya's Cher runway look though.

9. Morphine Love Dion

Last Week: Tenth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe

As with most of the queens in this week's challenge, Morphine was a bit meh as a drunk Andy Cohen-esque TV host. Like Megami, she's placed safe for three weeks without a breakout moment. Yes, she's serving body and face, but it's beginning to look like that might be all she's serving.

8. Amanda Tori Meating

Last Week: Eleventh
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe

Amanda is officially the underdog on the rise this season. After the horrible alien makeup in week one, she's bounced back with better makeup skills, lots of strong confessionals and a good-for-TV rivalry with Plane Jane. It's a bit hard to gauge the comedic chops of this cast, while they were chained to these snoozy skits, but Amanda, as the Weekend Update anchor, did not pop as much as she needed to, to stake her spot as the comedy queen of the season. Also, for as much as you can fix your makeup, you can't really fix your runways much, which I think will remain a thorn in her side.

7. Xunami Muse

Last Week: Sixth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe

As with so many queens this week, whatever charisma Xunami has was not at all apparent in the RDR Live challenge. Hosting the cold open with Morphine, she was largely forgettable. I don't blame this on Xunami at all, but it's interesting to see which queens were pulled out as doing good/bad among a sea of lackluster performances this week, and a third safe in a row for Xunami makes me think she's destined to finish middle of the pack. That being said, her nude illusion silver fairy look proved yet again that she has fashion sense.

6. Dawn

Last Week: Fifth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe

So far this season, Dawn is such an enigma to me. She's obviously a fan favorite on the internet, her confessionals are witty, and she's got endless amounts of charm. That said, we're four episodes in and she's yet to really be acknowledged by RuPaul as a competitor. Her weekend update host was perfectly fine, and her runway (which also included elements from different eras, but was not dragged) was passable. I just don't see Ru falling in love with Dawn, which is something you need in order to win the season.

5. Plasma

Last Week: Ninth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Win

After several weeks in the background, Plasma finally burst onto the scene this week in the season's first comedy challenge. The week was designed for Plasma's type of drag between the Barbra Streisand-inspired skit and the Cher-inspired runway. Plasma excelled at both and took home the win, which is something that doesn't always happen for the Broadway queens. That being said, Plasma won in a week where everyone was kind of just average due to the so-so skit writing. I can't wait to see what she can do in an improv challenge.

4. Sapphira Cristal

Last Week: Third
Track Record: Win, Top, Safe

Sapphira Cristal is definitely in the frontrunner pack this season, but where she lands in that grouping is a bit nebulous. She as a jack-of-all-trades quality to her that made her performance in this week's comedy challenge good, but nothing about it seemed great. Was that the writing? Was it her? I just worry a bit that she's going to end up with a lot of safe/top performances and not many wins thanks to more specialized queens stealing her thunder.

3. Nymphia Wind

Last Week: First
Track Record: Safe, Win, Safe

The first two weeks of my ratings, Nymphia sat in first place due to her aesthetic and personality. This week, however, in her first comedy challenge, she just seemed to be channeling zany more than anything specifically smart or unique. Again, I don't know if I should blame her or the poor writing, but this wasn't the strongest opening salvo in a comedy challenge, and I worry we might have found Nymphia's weakness.

2. Plane Jane

Last Week: Fourth
Track Record: Win, Safe, Top

Of all the weird, confusing and also bland things that happened in this week's episode, perhaps the thing I find most fascinating is Plane Jane's performance in RDR Live. It was blatantly obvious to me from about five seconds into the skit that Plane Jane was basically giving a redux of Vanessa Bayer's performance on SNL's famous Porn Stars skit. While this move feels a bit plagiarism-y, it's clever to just cop a bit you already know performs well. Now, either 1) Ru and the producers either didn't pick up on this (which I find sort of unlikely given that the skit seems to be based on the Porn Stars model or 2) Ru is fine with Plane Jane's move and happy to praise her anyways. Either way, this feels like something Ru would have clocked on a queen he didn't care for (ala Mirage's hair). This makes me think Ru is going to want to keep Plane Jane around for a while, and Plane has plenty of other good SNL characters she could put to use in upcoming episodes if she needs to.

1. Q

Last Week: Second
Track Record: Top, Top, Top

I don't have the stats on queens who have finished in the top on all three of their first episodes, but that has to be some rarified air. The fact that Q is doing so well, so early (and in different types of challenges), makes it obvious that she's talented and one of Ru's favorites. I expect her dominance to continue.

Next, Everything You Need to Know About RuPaul's Drag Race Season 16