We're six episodes into RuPaul's Drag Race Season 16 and we've finally started to trim the field. With the queens having shown us the full breadth of their talents, we're getting a good sense of who the frontrunners are (and who they are not).
This week we also said goodbye to Geneva Karr, who had spent her entire run in the competition bouncing from the top back down to the bottom. It felt like her time given that it was her third round lip syncing and I ranked her 10th in last weeks power rankings.
Which brings us to the question: Who will win Season 16 of RuPaul's Drag Race?
To that end, I've put together a ranking of the 10 remaining queens competing on this season, ordered from least likely to most likely to be crowned America's Next Drag Superstar. It's a power ranking if you will, and while there are supposed spoilers on dark corners of the internet, I haven't read any of them. This ranking is also based on how likely the queen is to WIN the competition, not just go far.
Feel free to swing back to Parade from week to week because I will be updating as the season progresses.
RuPaul's Drag Race Season 16 Episode 6 power rankings:
10. Mhi'ya Iman Le'Paige
Last Week: Ninth
Track Record: Safe, Bottom, Bottom, Win, Bottom
Unfortunately for the Queen of Flips, it would appear that Mhi'ya's time on Drag Race has reached the end of the road. While I had speculated that we might be seeing some sort of underdog arc for her, her bland voiceover describing her doll this week and trip to the bottom two solidifies that her days are numbered. While her lip syncing skills could possibly get her to the top nine, I cannot see her surviving past that point.
9. Morphine Love Dion
Last Week: Eleventh
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe, Safe, Safe
Drag Race is all about tiers, and so far Ru has been plucking the queens from the bottom of her roster to send home. However, as we near the competition's halfway point, being safe will no longer be good enough. Morphine, despite ridiculously good confessionals, has yet to claw her way into the top, and pretty soon that will stick her in the bottom.
Last Week: Eighth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe, Win, Safe
Sticking Megami one slot above Morphine because of her team's win last week, but both feel like they will fall in the bottom in upcoming weeks now that Amanda and Geneva have vacated their spots lower on the roster. While I did really like Megami's Statue of Liberty jumpsuit, I've yet to really see her pop in a comedy/personality challenge, which we'll certainly see more of soon.
7. Xunami Muse
Last Week: Seventh
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe, Safe, Safe
Xunami is the last safe-level queen of the season, having somehow spent five weeks without tipping into the top or bottom. While she has a fun personality and killer runway walk, she just doesn't have the pizazz or skill that the frontrunners have, which is going to catch up to her sooner or later.
Last Week: Sixth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe, Safe, Top
Dawnestly, Dawn's trip to the top this week has slated her firmly in the upper echelon of the competition. While she hasn't won, the judges loved her look this week, and she took Michelle's critique about the ears and makeup. Plus, last week during the girl group challenge, she was also singled out. While I don't think she's quite within striking distance of the crown, she seems to have solidified her place in the competition for a few more weeks.
5. Sapphira Cristal
Last Week: Fifth
Track Record: Win, Top, Safe, Safe, Immune
While Sapphira seemed SO SOLID early in the competition, her confidence seems to be evaporating quickly. Her performance in the girl group challenge was subpar, she needlessly gulped her immunity potion down this week and she just seems flappable. Is it giving America's Next Drag Superstar? I kind of think no, unless she can turn this around.
Last Week: Fourth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Win, Safe, Bottom
Plasma fell into the bottom this week, but I don't think that's incredibly concerning since design challenges certainly aren't her strong suit. With a Rusical, lip sync battle and Snatch Game presumably ahead, it seems like she'll be sitting in a good place the next few weeks even if she isn't the winner at the end of the season.
3. Nymphia Wind
Last Week: Second
Track Record: Safe, Win, Safe, Win, Safe
The Nymphia Wind edit is so so so strange to me. From an outside, objective perspective, she seems like such an obvious winner. Everything she does is immaculate and well thought out. That being said, she's not getting the lavish praise from Ru and the judges that both Q and Plane Jane keep getting, which makes me wonder if she'll ultimately fall a bit short of the grand prize. We shall see.
Last Week: Third
Track Record: Top, Top, Top, Bottom, Win
After a fiery lip sync last week, Q returned to take the win this week. Obviously she was always going to perform well in a design challenge so that is no shocker. Four out of five weeks in the top, however, is very impressive and I just can't see Ru sending her home before the finale.
1. Plane Jane
Last Week: First
Track Record: Win, Safe, Top, Safe, Top
Plane Jane remains THE GIRL of the season so far. In addition to a mesmerizing personality that's unlike anything we've seen in recent seasons, Ru is eating her up. Even in challenges like this week's design competition, where I wouldn't expect her to excel, she's managed to snatch strong critiques. Ru loves her humor, she's unique and perhaps it's time for another villain to win.