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Who Will Win 'RuPaul's Drag Race' Season 16? Episode 5 Power Rankings

We're five episodes into RuPaul's Drag Race Season 16 and we've finally started to trim the field. With the queens finally having shown us the full breadth of their talents, we're getting a good sense of who the frontrunners are (and who they are not).

This week we also said goodbye to Amanda Tori Meating, who ended up in the bottom with a group of frontrunners and was sent home. While I liked Amanda, and had placed her 8th last week in the power rankings, it did feel like the correct decision for the week.

Related: 'RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars 8' Take New York. Next Stop: the World.

Which brings us to the question: Who will win Season 16 of RuPaul's Drag Race?

To that end, I've put together a ranking of the 11 remaining queens competing on this season, ordered from least likely to most likely to be crowned America's Next Drag Superstar. It's a power ranking if you will, and while there are supposed spoilers on dark corners of the internet, I haven't read any of them. This ranking is also based on how likely the queen is to WIN the competition, not just go far.

If you want to take a look at last week's ranking, here you go.

Feel free to swing back to Parade from week to week because I will be updating as the season progresses.

RuPaul's Drag Race Season 16 Episode 5 power rankings:

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11. Morphine Love Dion

Last Week: Ninth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe, Safe

With four winners this week, and three of those sitting at the bottom of last week's ranking, a bit of a shakeup is in store. While Morphine has not performed poorly yet, she's also failed to stand out in now four very different types of challenges. And while her runways have been strong, Ru clocked her this week for being a bit one-note in her reliance on her *ss. While she undoubtedly has the best confessionals of the season, I think Morphine's exit is imminent.

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10. Geneva Karr

Last Week: Twelth
Track Record: Top, Bottom, Bottom, Win

Geneva's journey has been ROCKY between two highly ranked performances and two trips to the bottom. The common denominator is that Geneva is a tremendous dancer/lip sync assassin. However, since next week's challenge won't be another dance challenge, I think we could see Geneva back in the bottom, and I don't know if she has a third win in her.

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9. Mhi'ya Iman Le'Paige

Last Week: Eleventh
Track Record: Safe, Bottom, Bottom, Win

In some ways it's shocking that Mhi'ya is even still here, let alone that she has a win and hasn't had to lip sync yet. As a stunt queen, I think she's got at least one lip sync win in her, and she seems to be warming up a bit and coming out of her shell. Perhaps I should have been taking her more seriously all along.

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8. Megami

Last Week: Tenth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe, Win

While Megami's "Eeyore" persona continues to hang over her in this competition, she has proven herself to be a decently well-rounded queen. While her elimination would in no way surprise me, it seems like there are competitors with far greater weaknesses remaining and she should be able to ride a few more weeks of being safe before she's in danger.

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7. Xunami Muse

Last Week: Seventh
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe, Safe

Xunami's make-or-break moment is nigh. If you haven't made it to the top by episode five, your chances of winning are SLIM. While Xunami has a lot of flair, a compelling personality, and a killer runway presence, she just hasn't popped yet. She got positive critiques this week, but Q's clocking her in the "who should go home and why?" segment made me realize that if Xunami doesn't pop soon, she's essentially destined herself for a mid-season finish.

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6. Dawn

Last Week: Sixth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Safe, Safe

Dawn is basically in the same boat as Xunami, just one spot higher due to a more original persona. For me there is now a clear gap between Dawn and the top five to me, and if she or Xunami want to get out of the middle tier, they're going to need to win STAT.

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5. Sapphira Cristal

Last Week: Fourth
Track Record: Win, Top, Safe, Safe

It was another ho-hum week for Sapphira, and in a challenge that really should have been smooth sailing for such a veteran. While I think her early performances (not to mention immunity) place her firmly in the frontrunners tier, I'm not sure she has a strong enough strength to balance out some of her weaknesses.

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4. Plasma

Last Week: Fifth
Track Record: Safe, Safe, Win, Safe

Despite my general belief that Ru doesn't like Broadway queens, Plasma has continued to climb my rankings each week. While yes, the BFA girl should do well in the girl group challenge, I've been a bit surprised by how well she's adapted and also pushed the boundaries on the runway. Based on her renting of two boats for Instagram likes, Plasma seems flush with cash, so I imagine her runways will continue to wow, and with the Snatch Game and Rusical still yet to come, I can't see her stumbling in the near future.

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3. Q

Last Week: First
Track Record: Top, Top, Top, Bottom

After three weeks planted firmly in the top, Q took a massive tumble this week. This is a bit alarming because there will certainly be more dance-related performance challenges to come, and Q seems unlikely to outperform some of her chief competitors there. Perhaps more importantly though, both after last week's non-win and this week's critiques, Q has cracked a bit under the pressure. It's unclear to me if she has the mental toughness to endure against the likes of Nymphia and Plane Jane, who seem more equipped for the psychological toll of Drag Race.

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2. Nymphia Wind

Last Week: Third
Track Record: Safe, Win, Safe, Win

Nymphia keeps doing everything right, and the two wins certainly speak for themselves. That being said, we've yet to really see Ru stand in awe of her in the way I think she should. Nymphia helped send her team to victory this week and delivered easily the best runway of the night. And yet, hardly any of the episode's airtime was spent on her. While yes there are a lot of people sucking up Ru's attention, but I just feel slightly uneasy about putting Nymphia in the top spot she deserves.

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1. Plane Jane

Last Week: Second
Track Record: Win, Safe, Top, Safe

Ru loves Plane Jane. That much his painfully obvious, and while I thought that some of her schtick would get old, we're now five episodes in without a hint of a critique against her or her aesthetic. In fact, even when her team didn't win this week, she still got plenty of positive critiques. She is the lesser, cruder version of Jimbo, but Ru seems smitten with her nonetheless. Not to mention, Plane has the immunity potion which she can use to save herself should she have an off week.

Next, Everything You Need to Know About RuPaul's Drag Race Season 16