Are the BAFTAs the True Predictor of Oscar Things to Come?

Guy Lodge

14 February 2025 at 4:33 am·4-min read

The last two years of the BAFTA Awards told opposite stories of how Britain’s most prestigious film honors correspond with their American counterpart, the Oscars. In 2023, they went wholly in their own direction, voting differently from AMPAS in all major categories — showering Edward Berger’s “All Quiet on the Western Front” with gold and all but ignoring Oscar darling “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Last year, however, they matched the Oscars in every category save for best visual effects, as Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” ran the table on both sides of the pond. The BAFTAs, in other words, are either the most crucial Oscar precursor or the most rogue; either way, pundits watch them with bated breath.

When BAFTA voters go their own way, it’s often in favor of contenders close to home. Berger’s follow-up to “All Quiet,” the well-liked Vatican thriller “Conclave,” is the only British nominee for best film — a U.S.-U.K. co-production, technically, with a German-based Swiss-Austrian director. But with British talent like star Ralph Fiennes and super-producer Tessa Ross on board, it feels to voters like one of their own.

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Indeed, “Conclave” qualifies for BAFTA’s best British film award — that nomination secured it the numerical lead ahead of French auteur Jacques Audiard’s wild cartel musical “Emilia Pérez,” though with 12 and 11 nods, respectively, it’s pretty much level pegging. BAFTA voters are often generous to the French, their nearest European neighbors, and have twice awarded Audiard in the best film not in the English language category: both the nomination leaders could be said to have a geographical advantage.

Musical phenomenon “Wicked,” meanwhile, may not be up for best film, but the fact that it was shot at Britain’s Sky Studios Elstree, with much of its post-production done at London’s Framestore, could stand it in good stead in many below-the-line categories. Another film that could be termed an honorary British contender is Coralie Fargeat’s art-horror provocation “The Substance” — it’s produced, after all, by local industry legends Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner under their Working Title banner. And while that wasn’t deemed sufficient to qualify it for best British film, it’s a factor that could boost goodwill for best actress nominee Demi Moore as she faces homegrown nominees Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Cynthia Erivo.

If BAFTA voters aren’t feeling that locally or European-inclined this year, however, the American nominees best positioned to crash the party are Brady Corbet’s vast mid-century epic “The Brutalist,” with nine nominations, or Sean Baker’s dark sexworker comedy “Anora” — which, with its recent surprise DGA and PGA wins, is the newly anointed frontrunner Stateside — with six. Though sentiment over Donald Trump’s election isn’t quite as likely to influence proceedings as it is with Oscar voters, there is nonetheless a ripple effect — and the story of an oppressed immigrant running afoul of American capitalism does feel timely.

Prior to the campaign-damaging controversy over star Karla Sofia Gascón’s racist and Islamophobic tweets, it seemed that political topicality would benefit the trans-identity celebration of “Emilia Pérez.” “Conclave,” meanwhile, can claim some less tainted thematic currency in light of Pope Francis’ revived feud with the new POTUS (not to mention the film’s own conversation-stoking twist).

Still, it’s probably a stretch to imagine that it’ll get Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong, nominated stars of the Trump biopic “The Apprentice,” in pole position in their respective acting races. It’s the best documentary category where the news most comes into play: the last two winners, “20 Days in Mariupol” and “Navalny,” were very much ripped from the headlines, so the urgency of “No Other Land,” a harrowing look at Israel’s West Bank occupation, should net it the win.

As the most newly released of the five best film nominees, “The Brutalist” has freshness on its side, plus a local publicity boost from recently scooping film of the year at the London Critics’ Circle Awards.

Box office, finally, favors the fifth nominee, “A Complete Unknown.” The Bob Dylan biopic may have missed out on a crucial best director nomination (no film has won the top prize without one since “Educating Rita” 41 years ago), but James Mangold’s film has spent a crucial portion of the voting period at the top of the U.K. chart, taking in over £6 million ($7.4 million) to date. It’s the anti-topical contender — pure boomer nostalgia — but that only makes it stand out.

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