Super Bowl LIV betting: A bettor's guide to Chiefs vs. 49ers in the Super Bowl

MIAMI — There was a bit of a dip in Super Bowl bets last year.

For the Philadelphia Eagles-New England Patriots Super Bowl two seasons ago, Nevada took $158.6 million in bets. Last season, for Patriots-Rams, it was $145.9 million.

This season, sportsbooks are hoping for another spike up, with a fantastic matchup in Super Bowl LIV between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. More states have added legalized sports wagering, which could put the interest in the Super Bowl at an all-time high.

“This could be the most viewed and bet on Super Bowl we’ve seen,” MGM President of Interactive Gaming Scott Butera said.

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Here’s a guide for all of the betting angles on the biggest game of the year:

Super Bowl LIV is expected to be one of the most watched Super Bowls of all time. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Chiefs are the favorite for Super Bowl LIV

The Chiefs opened as a 1-point favorite and that line hasn’t moved too much.

The line did move to 1.5 when MGM took its third six-figure wager on the Chiefs, a $550,000 bet in the middle of this week. A $1 million bet on the 49ers, reportedly by Houston-based furniture business owner “Mattress Mack,” did not move the line back down. Most of the early money came in on the Chiefs.

The majority of the money on the over/under total (the combined points for both teams) came in on the over. That caused MGM to move the line from the opener of 53.5 to 54 and then again to 54.5.

The most popular Super Bowl prop bet

MGM takes most of its money for the Super Bowl on the usual bets: the point spread, moneyline and over/under. But for the Super Bowl, props are also wildly popular. MGM released 13 pages of prop bets for Super Bowl LIV.

The most popular prop for most Super Bowls is the player to score the first touchdown. The quarterbacks often take most of the betting action. Here are the odds for the most popular Super Bowl prop, the first player to score a touchdown (“no touchdown scored” is 100-to-1):


Raheem Mostert 6-to-1
George Kittle 17-to-2
Matt Breida 11-to-1
Tevin Coleman 11-to-1
Deebo Samuel 13-to-1
Emmanuel Sanders 13-to-1
Kendrick Bourne 18-to-1
Any other 49er 21-to-1
Jimmy Garoppolo 40-to-1


Damien Williams 6-to-1
Travis Kelce 15-to-2
Tyreek Hill 8-to-1
Sammy Watkins 15-to-1
Patrick Mahomes 21-to-1
Mecole Hardman 22-to-1
Any other Chief 22-to-1
Demarcus Robinson 27-to-1
LeSean McCoy 40-to-1

Super Bowl MVP is a popular wager

Another popular prop bet is on the game’s MVP. Again, the quarterbacks get most of the attention for that bet. Quarterbacks have won nine of the last 13 Super Bowl MVP awards. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (plus-120, meaning a bettor would win $120 for every $100 bet) and 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (plus-250) are the clear favorites for MVP at MGM.

While quarterbacks get most of the action, bettors will also try to hit a longshot on defensive stars. In Super Bowl 50, when Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller won MVP, it was a huge loss for the sportsbooks.

Here are the MVP odds:


Patrick Mahomes +120
Travis Kelce 14-to-1
Tyreek Hill 16-to-1
Damien Williams 16-to-1
Sammy Watkins 33-to-1
Frank Clark 80-to-1
Mecole Hardman 80-to-1
Chris Jones 80-to-1
Tyrann Mathieu 100-to-1
LeSean McCoy 150-to-1
Darwin Thompson 200-to-1
Demarcus Robinson 200-to-1
Anthony Sherman 200-to-1
Harrison Butker 200-to-1
Any other Chief 40-to-1


Jimmy Garoppolo +250
Raheem Mostert +750
George Kittle 14-to-1
Nick Bosa 20-to-1
Deebo Samuel 25-to-1
Emmanuel Sanders 33-to-1
Tevin Coleman 50-to-1
Richard Sherman 60-to-1
Dante Pettis 100-to-1
Kendrick Bourne 100-to-1
Matt Breida 100-to-1
Dee Ford 150-to-1
Robbie Gould 150-to-1
Kwon Alexander 200-to-1
Any other 49er 40-to-1

Two other popular prop bets

The Super Bowl famously has crazy prop bets available every year. For example, at MGM someone can bet on Pittsburgh Penguins goals vs. field goals made in Super Bowl LIV, with field goals at minus-0.5.

But two rather unusual prop bets always get more action than others. One is “Will there be a safety?” The other is “Will there be a successful two-point conversion?”

Those who bet “yes” on the safety prop have cashed some tickets in recent years. In Super Bowl XLVI, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was called for intentional grounding the end zone, resulting in a safety. The Ravens took an intentional safety in the final seconds of Super Bowl XLVII for strategic reasons. On the first play of XLVIII a shotgun snap went past Peyton Manning and it ended up as a safety for the Seahawks. There have been nine safeties in Super Bowl history. This year at MGM, the “yes” side of the safety prop is plus-600 and the “no” is minus-900 (a bettor would have to wager $900 to win $100).

For the two-point conversion prop, “yes” is plus-210 and “no” is minus-250.

Super Bowl Sunday is a bettor’s holiday

Since the Supreme Court removed a federal ban on legal sports gambling in 2018, 20 states have made sports wagering legal. Many other states are trying to pass legislation to make it legal. Betting on sports has never been more popular or widespread. And no game draws in bettors like the Super Bowl

There will be bad beats. There will be more of a migration to in-game betting and wagering on apps in states in which it’s legal. Sportsbooks will likely take a tidy profit. A few bettors will be hoping to cash the future bet they made last offseason on the 49ers to win the Super Bowl at 40-to-1.

And with more states adding sports betting, next year’s Super Bowl will be even bigger for bettors.

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