NFL Week 3 confidence rankings

Updated 19 September 2019 at 2:44 pm

Yahoo Sports is partnering with The Action Network during the football season to bring you expert sports betting information and analysis. Analysis courtesy of The Action Network’s Sean Koerner.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 3 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

All odds below as of Tuesday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

NFL Pick‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in homefield advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 3 then wrap it up with ATS.

1. Patriots

Matchup: vs. Jets

Confidence Rating: 96.6%

2. Cowboys

Matchup: vs. Dolphins

Confidence Rating: 94.6%

3. Vikings

Matchup: vs. Raiders

Confidence Rating: 77%

T-4. Packers

Matchup: vs. Broncos

Confidence Rating: 72.9%

T-4. 49ers

Matchup: vs. Steelers

Confidence Rating: 72.9%

T-6. Chiefs

Matchup: vs. Ravens

Confidence Rating: 71.4%

T-6. Bills

Matchup: vs. Bengals

Confidence Rating: 71.4%

T-6. Eagles

Matchup: vs. Lions

Confidence Rating: 71.4%

9. Buccaneers

Matchup: vs. Giants

Confidence Rating: 69.9%

10. Seahawks

Matchup: vs. Saints

Confidence Rating: 65.2%

T-11. Chargers

Matchup: vs. Texans

Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-11. Bears

Matchup: at Redskins

Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-13. Panthers

Matchup: at Cardinals

Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-13. Rams

Matchup: at Browns

Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-13. Colts

Matchup: at Falcons

Confidence Rating: 56.9%

16. Titans

Matchup: at Jaguars

Confidence Rating: 55.2%

17. Jaguars

Matchup: vs. Titans

Confidence Rating: 44.8%

T-18. Browns

Matchup: vs. Rams

Confidence Rating: 43.1%

T-18. Falcons

Matchup: at Colts

Confidence Rating: 43.1%

T-18. Cardinals

Matchup: vs. Panthers

Confidence Rating: 43.1%

T-21. Texans

Matchup: at Chargers

Confidence Rating: 36.4%

T-21. Redskins

Matchup: vs. Bears

Confidence Rating: 36.4%

23. Saints

Matchup: at Seahawks

Confidence Rating: 34.8%

24. Giants

Matchup: at Buccaneers

Confidence Rating: 30.1%

T-25. Ravens

Matchup: at Chiefs

Confidence Rating: 28.6%

T-25. Bengals

Matchup: at Bills

Confidence Rating: 28.6%

T-25. Lions

Matchup: at Eagles

Confidence Rating: 28.6%

T-28. Steelers

Matchup: at 49ers

Confidence Rating: 27.1%

T-28. Broncos

Matchup: at Packers

Confidence Rating: 27.1%

30. Raiders

Matchup: at Vikings

Confidence Rating: 23%

31. Dolphins

Matchup: at Cowboys

Confidence Rating: 5.4%

32. Jets

Matchup: at Patriots

Confidence Rating: 3.4%

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Dolphins

Spread: +22 at Cowboys

2. Jets

Spread: +23 at Patriots

T-3. Giants

Spread: +7 at Buccaneers

T-3. Chargers

Spread: -3 vs. Texans

T-3. Browns

Spread: +3 vs. Rams

T-6. Cardinals

Spread: +2.5 vs. Panthers

T-6. Bills

Spread: -6 vs. Bengals

T-6. Vikings

Spread: -8 vs. Raiders

T-6. Broncos

Spread: +7.5 at Packers

T-6. Ravens

Spread: +7 at Chiefs

T-11. Titans

Spread: -1.5 at Jaguars

T-11. 49ers

Spread: -7 vs. Steelers

T-11. Jaguars

Spread: +1.5 vs. Titans

T-11. Falcons

Spread: +2 at Colts

T-11. Redskins

Spread: +4 vs. Bears

T-11. Colts

Spread: -2 vs. Falcons

T-11. Bears

Spread: -4 at Redskins

T-11. Steelers

Spread: +7 at 49ers

T-11. Eagles

Spread: -6.5 vs. Lions

T-11. Seahawks

Spread: -4.5 vs. Saints

T-11. Saints

Spread: +4.5 at Seahawks

T-11. Lions

Spread: +6.5 at Eagles

T-23. Panthers

Spread: -2.5 at Cardinals

T-23. Raiders

Spread: +8 at Vikings

T-23. Bengals

Spread: +6 at Bills

T-23. Packers

Spread: -7.5 vs. Broncos

T-23. Chiefs

Spread: -7 vs. Ravens

T-28. Texans

Spread: +3 at Chargers

T-28. Buccaneers

Spread: -7 vs. Giants

T-28. Rams

Spread: -3 at Browns

31. Patriots

Spread: -23 vs. Jets

32. Cowboys

Spread: -22 vs. Dolphins

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