Investors eye July US jobs report: Morning Brief

Friday, August 2, 2019

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its July jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Investors widely expect the print to show a domestic labor market that has remained resilient despite encroaching global economic threats.

Here are the key figures consensus economists are expecting from the report, according to Bloomberg-compiled data:

  • Change in non-farm payrolls: +165,000, vs. +224,000 prior

  • Unemployment rate: 3.6%, vs. 3.7% prior

  • Average hourly earnings MoM: 0.2%, vs. 0.2% prior

  • Average hourly earnings YoY: 3.1%, vs. 3.1% prior

  • Labor force participation rate: 62.9%, vs. 62.9% prior

Consensus economists expect that headline non-farm payrolls moderated somewhat from June’s 224,000 gain – a pace economists including Nomura’s Lewis Alexander called “likely unsustainable.” June’s jobs report brought the three-month average for non-farm payroll gains to just over 170,000.

The unemployment rate is expected to have edged down to 3.6% in July, coming in at the same level as in April and May and marking the lowest jobless rate since 1969. Such a result would also mark the 17th straight month of an unemployment rate at or below 4%.

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