2025 Oscar predictions: A November survey of a deeply unsettled race

The 2025 Academy Awards finally have a host (and a great one at that) in beloved comedian Conan O'Brien, but trying to figure out the nominations is still a head-scratcher at this point in awards season.

In part due to the lingering effects of the 2023 Hollywood strikes and in part due to just how funky a year this is, no film can claim to be the de-facto frontrunner for Best Picture in the way Oppenheimer unquestionably could in 2023 and Everything Everywhere All At Once arguably could in 2022.

Honestly, only a handful of films this year even feel like safe bets for a Best Picture nomination, much less an outright win. There is too much left for us to discover, with precursor nominations more intriguing this year than in years past.

We don't know how much the 2024 election results will factor into how Academy voters feel, and we don't know how much stock to put in domestic box office performance or American sentiment in general as the voting body skews more international every year. This makes the horse race to nomination morning much more interesting than in recent memory, but it makes predicting how this goes much more challenging.

Quite frankly, we don't have much to go off of right now outside of a few films that would most likely make the cut in any Oscar season. With a hat-tip to The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg and his excellent contender database for his prediction list, let's go through the big eight categories.

Best Picture

• A Complete Unknown

• A Real Pain

• Anora

• The Brutalist

• Blitz

• Conclave

• Dune: Part Two

• Emilia Pérez

• September 5

• Wicked

10 on the outside looking in: All We Imagine As Light, Babygirl, Civil War, Gladiator II, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Wild Robot

Best Director

• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

• Sean Baker, Anora

• Edward Berger, Conclave

• Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

• Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Five on the outside looking in: Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door), Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Steve McQueen (Blitz)

Best Actor

• Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

• Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

• Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

• Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

• Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Five on the outside looking in: Daniel Craig (Queer), Jude Law (The Order), Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson),

Best Actress

• Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

• Angelina Jolie, Maria

• Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

• Mikey Madison, Anora

• Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door

Five on the outside looking in: Kirsten Dunst (Civil War), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

Best Supporting Actor

• Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

• Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

• Peter Sarsgaard, September 5

• Stanley Tucci, Conclave

• Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Five on the outside looking in: Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Mark Eidelstein (Anora), John Magaro (September 5), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Best Supporting Actress

• Ariana Grande, Wicked

• Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

• Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

• Isabella Rosselini, Conclave

• Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Five on the outside looking in: Leonie Benesch (September 5), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Joan Chen (Dìdi), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)

Best Original Screenplay

• Anora, Sean Baker

• A Real Pain, Jesse Eisenberg

• The Brutalist, Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold

• Blitz, Steve McQueen

• Hard Truths, Mike Leigh

Five on the outside looking in: All We Imagine As Light (Payal Kapadia), Babygirl (Halina Rejin), Challengers (Justin Kuritzkes), Civil War (Alex Garland), September 5 (Tim Fehlbaum and Moritz Binder)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• A Complete Unknown, Jay Cocks and James Mangold

• Conclave, Peter Straughan

• Dune: Part Two, Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts

• Emilia Pérez, Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain and Nicolas Livecchi

• Wicked, Winnie Holzman

Five on the outside looking in: Inside Out 2 (Dave Holstein, Meg LeFauve and Kelsey Mann), The Piano Lesson (Malcolm Washington and Virgil Williams), The Room Next Door (Pedro Almodóvar), Nickel Boys (Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross), Sing Sing (Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar)

This article originally appeared on For The Win: 2025 Oscar predictions: A November survey of a deeply unsettled race